Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Populasi terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia: Bukti Empiris Peringatan Dini dari Enam Negara Berkembang di Asia

Abstrak

This study examines the determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) in six developing countries in Asia during the period 1996–2024 using annual panel data obtained from the UNDP and the World Bank, including GDP per capita, population growth, trade openness, and telecommunications infrastructure. The model used a two-way fixed-effects approach, with tests for heteroscedasticity, robustness, and autocorrelation. The results indicate that GDP per capita, trade openness, and telecommunications infrastructure have a significant positive effect on the HDI, while population growth has a non-significant negative effect, suggesting that population growth does not directly and significantly reduce or improve the quality of human development. Economic crises show a non-significant positive effect on the HDI. These findings indicate that economic growth, trade integration, and the strengthening of digital infrastructure are important factors in human development in developing countries.