Wrapper Feature Selection Method for Predicting Student Dropout in Higher Education

Abstrak

Background of Study: Student dropout in higher education is influenced by a variety of factors including demographic, socioeconomic, macroeconomic, admission-related, and academic performance data. Accurately identifying students at risk of dropping out is a significant challenge within educational data mining (EDM), especially when working with large, complex datasets.Aims and Scope of Paper: This study aims to identify an optimal subset of features that can improve the accuracy of student dropout prediction. The scope includes comparing the effectiveness of different machine learning algorithms combined with a heuristic-based feature selection method to find the best-performing model.Methods: A Wrapper-based feature selection approach was employed using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) as the search strategy. ACO was integrated with five classifiers—Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Neural Network (NN)—to select the most relevant feature subsets. The performance of each combination was evaluated and compared.Result: The study found that ACO combined with Random Forest (ACO-RF) outperformed the other combinations in feature selection effectiveness. The selected features were then validated using various machine learning algorithms and a neural network. Among them, the neural network achieved the highest accuracy of 93%.Conclusion: The proposed ACO-RF wrapper method is an effective feature selection strategy for predicting student dropout in higher education. The method enhances model performance, especially when used with neural networks, and offers a promising approach for early identification of at-risk students.