Multitemporal Analysis of Environmental Criticality and Adaptation Strategies in Built-Up Urban Areas of Jember

Abstrak

Global warming is an urban problem that affects critical environmental conditions due to the process of urbanization, one of which is the city of Jember. Increased urbanization in the city of Jember is marked by an increase in population density of 100 people/km² in the last five years, which is exacerbated by changes in the natural landscape. The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamics of environmental criticality in Jember City and its relationship with built-up land in order to formulate appropriate adaptation strategies. This study uses Landsat data to extract Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) to produce an Environmental Criticality Index (ECI). In addition, the relationship between built-up land (supervised classification) and ECI is determined through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and strategies are formulated through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results of the study show that the level of environmental criticality in Jember City has increased by 2,499.36 Ha over ten years (2015-2025). This condition is related to an increase in the area of developed land, as indicated by a higher R-squared value in 2025 of 0,811. The results provided the basis for the AHP assessment, which highlighted climate-responsive spatial planning and enhanced water resource infrastructure management as the priority strategies for addressing environmental criticality.