CORRELATION OF SST AND CAPE TO RAINFALL IN WEST JAVA AND DKI JAKARTA

Abstrak

The high variability shown by the West Java and DKI Jakarta regions is influenced by various local and global factors such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The purpose of this study is to analyze the statistical correlation between SST and Rainfall, CAPE and Rainfall, and SST and CAPE. The data used covers the period 1985–2024 using ERA5 reanalysis data and rainfall data from 6 BMKG stations in the West Java and DKI Jakarta regions. The methods used include climatological analysis, anomalies, and Pearson correlation with a significance level of p-value <0.05. The results show that the rainfall pattern follows a tropical monsoon climate with peak rainfall in December–February and a dry season in June–August. A significant positive correlation between SST and rainfall is seen strongly in the southern region of West Java (near the Indian Ocean), while the northern region (north coast of Jakarta) shows a negative correlation influenced by the El Niño phenomenon and positive IOD. CAPE shows a strong positive correlation with rainfall across almost the entire region, particularly at Citeko, Kertajati, and the West Java Climatology Station, indicating the dominance of local convective processes. Furthermore, SST has a strong positive relationship with CAPE in the southern region, confirming the role of ocean warming in increasing atmospheric instability. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing an early warning system for extreme weather in densely populated urban areas.